Zune
Microsoft pre-announces this "iPod killer" a week before Apple's WWDC starts.
On a Friday afternoon no less, when the headlines are filled with reporting on three wars, a nutty grocery knifer, and a heat wave.
Now, given that the rest of the world (except for the stenographers at C|Net, who just rewrite press releases) understands that you always release bad news on a Friday afternoon (see also, Bush, George W.), and always pre-announce well in advance of your competitor (to diffuse the competitor's own news by inviting speculative comparison), well, what have you got?
You've got a music player that's going to have the style of a Microsoft keyboard, some bullet-point features, massive marketing resources, and the deepest pockets in the industry. Whether it works well or not - whether people find it compelling or not - we'll hear a lot about the Zune (not even worth making fun of the name) over the next few months.
And, perhaps most importantly, the Zune will be a massive money loser. Like the X-Box, it will succeed only because the giant piggy bank at Microsoft buys the ads, subsidizes the hemorragic production line, buys dinner for the gang at C|Net, and repeats this formula year after year until they have the iPod's market share. And then, they still won't stop. Unless it doesn't happen - and I don't think it will.
I mean, have you seen the pictures of this thing? It looks like the best of the 3rd and 4th generation iPod, combined in a lovely mustard-yellow anodized case. Barf. The comments at the Microsoft "Zune Insider" (boy, there's a pun waiting there somewhere) are a mixture of "check out my podcast" and "you guys are idiots".
What, are we going to start calling them "zunecasts" now? Dinna think so. Microsoft is a little too late to this party to do truly well, I'm afraid, and while the hole won't be as big as the X-Box's, it'll be another money whilpool in the once-tranquil sea of Windows and Office revenue. And if something happens to threaten either one of those revenue streams...well, Microsoft may have to start thinking about inventing products no one else has actually, you know, gotten to yet. And making them work well. Frankly, if it comes to that, I don't give them much chance-but such a scenario is a decade off at the earliest.
(Don't even get me started on Microsoft's plans to replace everyone's AAC files with Windows Media versions of the same tracks. It's not fair, and may be actionable in court - you don't see Sony buying DVD owners Blu-Ray new versions of their collections, do you? There's a good reason, and it's not because Sony is poor.)
When it finally hits the streets, C|Net will do a glowing review of the Zune while the New York Times struggles to find anything outstanding about it. Still, it'll sell a lot of copies and give the iPod some competition - which for all it's efforts, Creative hasn't been able to do with players that are probably better today than the Zune will be tomorrow.
Money makes the world go around, and money equals influence. That's the only reason the Zune will do well - if it does well - at all. Massive money from the Office and Windows ATMs, helping to flood the airways, billboards, and pop-ups of the world with the message that Microsoft's player might not be cool, but it is...something...
Well, I hope they've got something compelling up their sleeves. I don't know what Apple has up theirs, (and even if I did, I wouldn't say) but I can tell you this: Cupertino is going to be a very exciting place during the next three months.
Apple's going to give Microsoft a lesson in stolen thunder.
On a Friday afternoon no less, when the headlines are filled with reporting on three wars, a nutty grocery knifer, and a heat wave.
Now, given that the rest of the world (except for the stenographers at C|Net, who just rewrite press releases) understands that you always release bad news on a Friday afternoon (see also, Bush, George W.), and always pre-announce well in advance of your competitor (to diffuse the competitor's own news by inviting speculative comparison), well, what have you got?
You've got a music player that's going to have the style of a Microsoft keyboard, some bullet-point features, massive marketing resources, and the deepest pockets in the industry. Whether it works well or not - whether people find it compelling or not - we'll hear a lot about the Zune (not even worth making fun of the name) over the next few months.
And, perhaps most importantly, the Zune will be a massive money loser. Like the X-Box, it will succeed only because the giant piggy bank at Microsoft buys the ads, subsidizes the hemorragic production line, buys dinner for the gang at C|Net, and repeats this formula year after year until they have the iPod's market share. And then, they still won't stop. Unless it doesn't happen - and I don't think it will.
I mean, have you seen the pictures of this thing? It looks like the best of the 3rd and 4th generation iPod, combined in a lovely mustard-yellow anodized case. Barf. The comments at the Microsoft "Zune Insider" (boy, there's a pun waiting there somewhere) are a mixture of "check out my podcast" and "you guys are idiots".
What, are we going to start calling them "zunecasts" now? Dinna think so. Microsoft is a little too late to this party to do truly well, I'm afraid, and while the hole won't be as big as the X-Box's, it'll be another money whilpool in the once-tranquil sea of Windows and Office revenue. And if something happens to threaten either one of those revenue streams...well, Microsoft may have to start thinking about inventing products no one else has actually, you know, gotten to yet. And making them work well. Frankly, if it comes to that, I don't give them much chance-but such a scenario is a decade off at the earliest.
(Don't even get me started on Microsoft's plans to replace everyone's AAC files with Windows Media versions of the same tracks. It's not fair, and may be actionable in court - you don't see Sony buying DVD owners Blu-Ray new versions of their collections, do you? There's a good reason, and it's not because Sony is poor.)
When it finally hits the streets, C|Net will do a glowing review of the Zune while the New York Times struggles to find anything outstanding about it. Still, it'll sell a lot of copies and give the iPod some competition - which for all it's efforts, Creative hasn't been able to do with players that are probably better today than the Zune will be tomorrow.
Money makes the world go around, and money equals influence. That's the only reason the Zune will do well - if it does well - at all. Massive money from the Office and Windows ATMs, helping to flood the airways, billboards, and pop-ups of the world with the message that Microsoft's player might not be cool, but it is...something...
Well, I hope they've got something compelling up their sleeves. I don't know what Apple has up theirs, (and even if I did, I wouldn't say) but I can tell you this: Cupertino is going to be a very exciting place during the next three months.
Apple's going to give Microsoft a lesson in stolen thunder.
Labels: Archived
posted by Doug at 10:08 AM
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